What does a trade war mean for Saskatchewan and Manitoba?

As we stare down the possibility of a full-blown trade war with the U.S., Canadians have been flexing their national pride—boycotting American brands, cancelling U.S. streaming services, and even rerouting vacations away from the States. At the same time, crowds boo the U.S. national anthem at sporting events. All this is because American President Donald Trump threatens tariffs and, worse yet, wants to annex Canada.

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Related:

• Manitoban creates app that detects products made in Canada
• Portage working with other municipalities to adapt to potential tariff challenges
• Politics, trade tensions behind Winnipeg school division’s decision to pull plug on students’ trip to U.S.
• Buying local should always be a priority for Canadians: Gimli biz owner
• Manitoba ad campaign will promote buying local amid Trump tariff tiff
• Manitobans talk U.S. tariff threats and shopping local

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Trump’s latest move? A 25 per cent tariff on Canadian steel and aluminum, which will take effect on March 12. And if Canada’s work to tighten border security doesn’t satisfy him, we could face across-the-board 25 per cent tariffs as early as March 4.

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Related:

• Manitoba beefs up border security with ‘a lot on the line’: McGuinty
• RCMP Black Hawk helicopters start patrolling Manitoba-U.S. border
• Saskatchewan to send 16 officers to border to enhance security with patrols, drones
• Neglecting our border led us to this point: Emerson mayor

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What does this mean for Saskatchewan and Manitoba?

A trade war will significantly impact Saskatchewan and Manitoba.

Last year alone, Saskatchewan exported $27 billion worth of goods to the U.S., which accounts for 55 per cent of its total trade.

Manitoba is even more reliant on the United States for its exports, with 93.3 per cent of its natural resources flowing southward in 2020.

The Prairie industries hit hardest? Oil, potash, agriculture, and manufacturing.

Here’s what that looks like in numbers:

• Crude Oil: Saskatchewan sent $11.6 billion of crude oil to the U.S. in 2023. Oil and gas make up about 20 per cent of Manitoba’s exports and pump hundreds of millions of dollars into the local economy. Any trade disruption would be painful since Canada’s pipelines are tightly linked with the American oil industry.
• Potash: Saskatchewan supplies 80 per cent of America’s potash imports. If tariffs make it too costly for U.S. buyers, Saskatchewan potash producers could feel the squeeze.
• Canola: Saskatchewan’s refined canola oil exports to the U.S. were worth $2.5 billion in 2023. Meanwhile, Manitoba exported $1.04 billion of canola oil and $308 million of canola meal. If American buyers pull back, farmers will need new markets.
• Manufacturing: With 1,000 manufacturers in Saskatchewan and 1,400 in Manitoba, thousands of jobs could be affected.

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Related:

• Federal, Manitoba governments commit nearly $80 million for northern railway, port
• Manitoba Premier Wab Kinew says Canada can’t be tariff ‘punching bag’

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Is Annexation a Real Threat?

Stephen Harper made headlines this week when he said he’d impoverish the country rather than be absorbed into the U.S. Meanwhile, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau was caught on a hot mic saying he thinks Trump’s annexation comments are “a real thing.”

Defence Minister Bill Blair tried to calm nerves, insisting that while Trump’s remarks were offensive, annexation isn’t a real threat. Still, the very fact that we’re even discussing this is enough to make any Canadian uneasy.

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Read:

• Saskatchewan premier says broad tariffs against U.S. would ‘rip this country apart’

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What Can We Do?

If you’re trying to shop Canadian, let us know if you’ve found some amazing Saskatchewan or Manitoba-made products. We’d love to highlight local alternatives to American goods.

Email info@theflatlander.ca and share your thoughts.